England is making a right mess of their 2019 Cricket World Cup campaign. What started as a tournament of promise and fulfilling destiny is now becoming a train wreck. Losing to Pakistan was considered to be a blip; bathos after the high of beating South Africa, convincingly, in the opening game of the tournament. Defeat at the hands of Sri Lanka not only questions England’s ability to win but also makes the last three games as must win. The problem with that scenario is that those fixtures are against main rivals Australia, New Zealand and India. Opponents can smell blood in the water and rightly so.
How can England be making such a botched job? Their overall win ratio since January 1, 2018, is 68.29%. Whether batting or bowling first does not make too much of a statistical difference with batting at 68.42% and bowling at 68.18%. Despite such a good run of form, England has a win ratio of 66.67% in CWC19. Not too much difference? The problem is that difficult matches are yet to come. Dropping the game against Pakistan, who chose to live up to their stereotypical ‘mercurial’ tag, could be seen as one of those things. Losing to a previously unimpressive Sri Lanka is concerning for England fans. However the defeat is squared off, it is still a loss and puts a place in the semi-finals in jeopardy.
Where has it gone wrong? On face value, both bowling and batting look like there’s not too much to put right. In the six matches to date, England has bowled out three opponents and taken 28 out from 30 possible in the other games. Pretty impressive when you consider that Jofra Archer is new to the team and still finding his feet at international level. The omission of Liam Plunkett has weakened the team. England has won the last seven games that he has played in, with Plunkett contributing 12 wickets. For me, it’s the batting that is letting England down. Sounds implausible when you consider Eoin Morgan’s record-breaking innings or Jason Roy’s fantastic 153. However, that’s the problem – occasional massive innings masking poor batting. Only Joe Root can be excluded from such criticism; playing sublime cricket, the Test captain has been the consistent anchor. If you look at the other top batters, their highest scores account for a serious amount of their total runs: Roy’s 153 (71% of his total runs), Morgan’s 148 (64%), Stokes’ rear-guard 89 (44%), Buttler’s 103 (52%) and Bairstow’s 90 (41%). England is desperate for more Root-like innings rather than sporadic blasts of power on show. James Vince and Moeen Ali have added very little to this.
Is it all doom and gloom? Well, no. England is more than capable of beating all three opponents. They hold a winning record against all three in the last 18 months. Australia has particularly felt the brunt with a 9-1 record. Both India (2-1) and New Zealand (3-2) have proved to be stiffer opposition, but England has still won more than they have lost. The counterargument that will be levelled at this statistic is that these wins were achieved in bilateral series rather than one-off games. This is a valid challenge and, with losses to Pakistan and Sri Lanka hovering over like a raincloud, may have more than a little amount of credence. It’s not beyond mathematical probability that Sri Lanka, or anyone except Afghanistan, could finish above England to take fourth place. It’s unlikely, however, as these teams have more inconsistent and will most probably foul somewhere down the line.
What can England do? Remembering that they are an excellent ODI team who are ranked as number one would be a start. Losing Jason Roy to injury has not helped, and England will hope that he is back soon. Replacement opener James Vince has flattered to deceive before getting out with an insignificant amount of runs on the board. Swapping Plunkett for Ali would be another necessary change.
It’s a cliché, but the tournament starts now for England. The simple equation is that if they win the next five matches, they will be World Cup winners. The reality is that they will be most likely playing India, Australia or New Zealand in those five games. Winning the Cricket World Cup was not going to be easy, but England needs to cut out the poor performances to give themselves a good chance. It’s safe to assert that this team have the best ever chance to win the tournament. They are number one in the world and are playing at home. The problem is that it could be too much of a millstone to bear.
Jonathan