Fascinatingly England’s leadership team Baz, Ben and Bob went early with the tour squad to New Zealand, an early Christmas present. Soon following with the Lion’s tour squads for Sri Lanka. The latter is interesting as it should form some idea of the who and how for the India Series in 12 months’ time.
The squads are perhaps most interesting for who is excluded, Bairstow, Wood, Rehan Ahmed. All three are in very different positions, Bairstow one assumes is being given time to fully recover and hit the ground running in the spring for the Ashes summer. Wood for slightly different reasons, one assumes is being given time to prepare for the same Ashes summer, although I suspect that he will be missed in New Zealand.
Rehan Ahmed’s omission is fascinating. I know they want to manage him and expectations but he is not in either tour squad or at the IPL. Baz spoke of him learning in franchise cricket and it was implied that New Zealand would not be receptive for spin (wheel out poor old Jack). I suspect that Rehan would learn as much playing on ‘non-spinning’ pitches as he will elsewhere and is perhaps more likely to produce a magic ball on benign surfaces (as we are without Wood). Maybe they will sneak him into the squad as they did in Pakistan.
If not, then I assumed he must go to Sri Lanka alongside the impressive Liam Patterson-White. This will represent (in the test leg) a good opportunity to bowl long spells on spinning pitches with fielders around the bat – something we will need in India in 12 months’ time.
On the subject of spin, I am still trying to understand what I make of Jack Leach. He’s a terrific bloke (his team mates love him) and he’s gutsy in the field and with the bat. That said, 15 wickets at 44, striking every 71 balls was not a great return in Pakistan and I fear he will wilt against the Australia top 5 containing 3 left handers and the ‘fidget twins’.
Perhaps that is unfair, he has been in and out of the side, especially under Root/Silverwood and would have benefited from consistent selection.
Nathan Lyon made his test debut on 31st August 2011 and has played 115 of the 118 tests since his debut (97%).
Jack Leach made his test debut on 30th March 2018 and has played 32 tests of the 61 England have played since his debut (52%).
Lyon has an incredible 460 test wickets despite having no ‘mystery ball’ which is very impressive. That said, his average and strike rate are good, rather than exceptional. What makes this interesting is that Leach across his 32 tests has a similar average, economy rate and for me the most important strike rate.
I’m stretching the concept a little, but if you take the basis Lyon has played 3.5 times as many tests and multiply Leach’s numbers he would have 385 wickets from 112 tests. I know that the nuances of the game mean this simple statistical analysis is not an indication of fact, but worth noting that most bowlers get better and more confident the more they play.
Going full 360, I suspect that Rehan Ahmed is the man to bowl to Warner, Khawaja, Head and the fidget twins (PS – please don’t let them play county cricket before the Ashes).
The seam bowling looks well stocked; Anderson, Robinson and Wood are the front runners to me come Ashes time. Broad and Woakes will hope to dispute that but I feel they are now behind the running. It’s great to see Archer, Mahmood and Stone all bowling again. They are building up in short form cricket but all have something to add, especially as Wood won’t be likely to play 5 tests in a row.
The great thing about this Baz, Ben and Bob set up is that we will get balance – a spinner and 3 of the seam bowlers.
The batting is also shaping up well, Duckett and Crawley will get another chance to cement the opening places with Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes set to follow them. I expect Tom Haines and Haseeb Hameed to push the openers hard for their places and Tom Abell is a very good player. It’s great to see Dan Lawrence back in the test squad, he played well last winter and was unlucky with hamstring injuries this past summer. I’m a little surprised that Sam Hain, Matt Critchley, Mason Crane and Saqib Mahmood are not in the test leg.
The intrigue in the test match top 7 is how to re-integrate Jonny Bairstow when he is fit. The most common working theory is that he will replace the ‘unlucky’ Ben Foakes as keeper at no 6 or 7. This would undoubtably add power to the batting unit and Jonny likes to keep but I don’t believe that Baz, Ben and Bob see it that way.
The sample size is small, and the batting positions are very different but under Stokes captaincy there is a big difference between Foakes and Crawley:
The challenge then becomes where and how do you fit Brook and Bairstow into the top 6, can you ask one of them to open? Or are you weakening a strength by doing so? Sehwag, Herschelle Gibbs, Rohit, Khawaja have all made the move successfully but opening in England is a different challenge.
Sport can be cruel and injuries do happen, so having a full squad to pick from is exciting and necessary. I can’t wait for a 5 test series, there are too few of them and we will find out what both sides are really made of over this coming summer … but first let’s force some positive results on those New Zealand pitches.
Go well England and England Lions.